Forecasting and Innovation

 Infamous Prediction That Came True

            The future is almost never certain. However, there are some methods that can be used in order to predict what the future may hold (Chermack et al., 2001). Some of the predictions that were made in the past have come to fruition. One example of these predictions are the 15 advancements in technology that Bill Gate’s provided in 1999 (Gates, 1999). While not the exact predictions, all 15 became commonplace in the current era. I won’t cover all of the predictions, but one of the most infamous can relate to his predictions on digital marketing.

Summarization

            The ninth prediction that Bill Gate made was "Devices will have smart advertising. They will know your purchasing trends, and will display advertisements that are tailored toward your preferences." (Gates, 1999). Ever talk to someone about a certain product and suddenly it starts showing up in your social media feeds? I think the creepiest personal experience of mine was when I was looking at some products around my birthday and my wife started getting ads for them. She never had an interest in the product herself. As Bill Gate’s predicted, smart advertising has come true. Social media sites and adverts will show up based on search history, interests, and even listen to you through smart devices (Lee & Cho, 2020).

Contributing Forces

            The most obvious force that contributes to the success of digital marketing is financial. Traditional advertisements in newspapers and television would attempt to predict what the audience may purchase (Lee & Cho, 2020). For example, children’s television channels are more likely to have toy commercials over adult channels. This attempt to brute force excitement for products has worked in the past. However, being able to tailor advertising based on the needs of the consumer would more likely result in a purchase (Lee & Cho, 2020).

            Another force would be the evolution of the technologies we actively use. Bill Gates also predicted IoT devices, tablets, smart phones, and social media (Gates, 1999). All of these devices have come to fruition and contribute heavily into smart marketing. As we have become more connected to the internet, some perpetually. This has cultivated an environment that allows smart marketing to thrive and be creepy.


 

References

Chermack, T. J., Lynham, S. A., & Ruona, W. E. (2001). A review of scenario planning literature. Futures research quarterly, 17(2), 7-32.

 

Gates, B. (1999). Business@ the speed of thought. Business Strategy Review, 10(2), 11-18.

 

Lee, H., & Cho, C.-H. (2020). Digital advertising: present and future prospects. International Journal of Advertising, 39(3), 332-341.

 

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